The Majority's Still Emerging
Ruy Teixeira has an article
in the Washington Monthly about the 2002 election results and why they don't disprove what he and Jon Judas wrote last year about long-term trends in The Emerging Democratic Majority
"The GOP's midterm wins depended heavily on their advantages in five areas that are either unlikely to persist or were overrated to begin with: a reliance on white voters, the growth of exurban voters, heavy GOP turnout, the tax-cut issue, and war."
As Teixeira notes, the Republicans' success in 2002 came simply from mobilizing their traditional base, while minority voters remained just as strong a Democratic constituency as in 2000. Keep this in mind when you hear conservatives, such as the unabashed "GOP cheerleader" George Will
, strenuously insisting that minority communities are turning to the Republicans.